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Weekly Economic Update - 6.19.17

FED DELIVERS EXPECTED & UNEXPECTED NEWS

As Wall Street anticipated, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates on June 14. The Federal Open Market Committee voted 8-1 to take the benchmark interest rate north by a quarter-point to the 1.00-1.25% range. The Fed also said it would begin to reduce its $4.5 trillion balance sheet at some point “this year” by slowing reinvestments. As a start, it will let $6 billion per month in Treasury holdings run off, along with $4 billion per month in agency debt and mortgage-linked securities. This implies upward pressure on long-term interest rates.1,2

      

RETAIL SALES, HEADLINE INFLATION BOTH RETREAT

The Consumer Price Index declined 0.1% in May, noted the Bureau of Labor Statistics; core consumer inflation rose 0.1%. A bigger May decline came for retail purchases – the Census Bureau said that they fell 0.3% even with car sales factored out.3

   

HOUSING STARTS SLIP

The Census Bureau’s new residential construction snapshot showed groundbreaking at an 8-month low, with total housing starts down 5.5% in May. Total building permits decelerated 4.9% last month to their slowest pace since April 2016.4

 

GAUGE OF SENTIMENT DESCENDS

In its preliminary June edition, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index fell short of expectations. Economists, polled by Briefing.com, forecast a reading of 97.0 for the index, but it came in at 94.5.3

 

DOW 30 OUTPACES S&P 500

Rising 0.53% in five days, the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the week at 21,384.28. The S&P 500 made a weekly advance of 0.06% to a Friday close of 2,433.15. Tech shares kept selling off, resulting in the Nasdaq Composite’s 0.90% weekly descent to a Friday settlement of 6,151.76. The Dow Jones Utility Average had the best week among consequential U.S. equity indices, rising 1.75%.5

  

THIS WEEK: Nothing major is scheduled for Monday. Tuesday, Adobe Systems, FedEx, La-Z-Boy, Lennar, and Red Hat all present earnings. Wednesday offers May existing home sales figures and earnings announcements from CarMax, Oracle, and Winnebago. Earnings news from Accenture, Barnes & Noble, Bed Bath & Beyond, Carnival, and Sonic arrives Thursday, plus new initial jobless claims numbers. Friday, investors consider May new home sales and Q2 results from Finish Line.

 

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+8.21

+20.59

+13.50

+5.68

NASDAQ

+14.28

+26.97

+22.83

+13.42

S&P 500

+8.68

+17.09

+16.24

+5.87

REAL YIELD

6/16 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.49%

0.15%

-0.54%

2.73%

 

 


Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 6/16/175,6,7,8

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

Citations.

1 - marketwatch.com/story/fed-raises-interest-rates-to-reduce-balance-sheet-this-year-2017-06-14 [6/14/17]

2 - businessinsider.com/federal-reserve-rate-hike-plan-to-unwind-45-trillion-balance-sheet-2017-6 [6/14/17]

3 - briefing.com/investor/calendars/economic/2017/06/12-16 [6/16/17]

4 - reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy-idUSKBN197277 [6/16/17]

5 - markets.wsj.com/us [6/16/17]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F16%2F16&x=0&y=0 [6/16/17]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F16%2F16&x=0&y=0 [6/16/17]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F16%2F16&x=0&y=0 [6/16/17]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F15%2F12&x=0&y=0 [6/16/17]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F15%2F12&x=0&y=0 [6/16/17]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F15%2F12&x=0&y=0 [6/16/17]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F15%2F07&x=0&y=0 [6/16/17]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F15%2F07&x=0&y=0 [6/16/17]

6 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F15%2F07&x=0&y=0 [6/16/17]

7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [6/16/17]

8 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [6/16/17]  

Weekly Economic Update - 6.12.17

AN UPBEAT REPORT ON THE SERVICE SECTOR

The Institute for Supply Management’s May non-manufacturing purchasing manager index displayed a reading of 56.9 last week, showing expansion in U.S. service industries for an eighty-ninth straight month. Although the gauge declined 0.6 points from its April mark, it signaled a solid pace of growth. The index’s employment component rose 6.4 points to a mark of 57.8, as 15 industries added workers in May. The PMI has averaged a reading of 55.9 over the past 12 months.1

        

FACTORY ORDERS DECLINED IN APRIL

According to a new Census Bureau report, they decreased 0.2%. That marked their first month-over-month retreat of 2017. The 0.2% gain for March factory orders, however, was revised up to 1.0%. Orders increased by an average of 0.7% per month in the first quarter.2

   

ABUNDANT SUPPLY HURTS OIL

WTI crude lost 3.8% during June 5-9, tumbling to a $45.83 settlement on the NYMEX Friday. The U.S. rig count rose again last week, as it has every week for the past five months. While OPEC has vowed to reduce production by 1.2 million barrels per day, daily American oil output has increased by almost 600,000 barrels, so far, this year.3

 

TWO MAJOR INDICES RETREAT; A THIRD RISES

Last week, the Nasdaq Composite fell 1.55% to 6,207.92, while the S&P 500 dipped 0.30% to 2,431.76. On the other hand, the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to gain 0.31% on its way to a Friday close of 21,271.28. The CBOE VIX volatility index soared 17.03% for the week, settling Friday at 11.41.4

 

THIS WEEK: Nothing major is scheduled for Monday. The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the May Producer Price Index on Tuesday; in addition, H&R Block and Wiley announce quarterly results. Wednesday, investors react to the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy decision, the May Consumer Price Index, the May retail sales report, and quarterly results from Jabil and Liberty Tax. A new initial jobless claims report arrives on Thursday, plus a report on May industrial output and earnings announcements from Bob Evans Farms and Kroger. On Friday, the University of Michigan’s preliminary June consumer sentiment index appears, along with data on May housing starts and building permits.

 

% CHANGE

Y-T-D

1-YR CHG

5-YR AVG

10-YR AVG

DJIA

+7.63

+18.27

+13.89

+5.85

NASDAQ

+15.32

+25.19

+23.44

+14.12

S&P 500

+8.62

+14.95

+16.69

+6.13

REAL YIELD

6/9 RATE

1 YR AGO

5 YRS AGO

10 YRS AGO

10 YR TIPS

0.43%

0.12%

-0.50%

2.69%

 

 


Sources: wsj.com, bigcharts.com, treasury.gov - 6/9/174,5,6,7

Indices are unmanaged, do not incur fees or expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. These returns do not include dividends. 10-year TIPS real yield = projected return at maturity given expected inflation.

 

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The NASDAQ Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

 

Citations.

1 - instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ISMReport/NonMfgROB.cfm [6/5/17]

2 - briefing.com/Investor/Calendars/Economic/Releases/facord.htm [6/5/17]

3 - marketwatch.com/story/oil-prices-pinned-down-by-strong-dollar-supply-worries-2017-06-09 [6/9/17]

4 - markets.wsj.com/us [6/9/17]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F9%2F16&x=0&y=0 [6/9/17]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F9%2F16&x=0&y=0 [6/9/17]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F9%2F16&x=0&y=0 [6/9/17]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F8%2F12&x=0&y=0 [6/9/17]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F8%2F12&x=0&y=0 [6/9/17]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F8%2F12&x=0&y=0 [6/9/17]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=DJIA&closeDate=6%2F8%2F07&x=0&y=0 [6/9/17]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=COMP&closeDate=6%2F8%2F07&x=0&y=0 [6/9/17]

5 - bigcharts.marketwatch.com/historical/default.asp?symb=SPX&closeDate=6%2F8%2F07&x=0&y=0 [6/9/17]

6 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyield [6/9/17]

7 - treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=realyieldAll [6/9/17]  

Terry and Jason Sustar are investment adviser representatives of, and securities and advisory services are offered through, USA Financial Securities Corp., Member FINRA/SIPC. www.finra.org A Registered Investment Adviser located at 6020 E. Fulton St., Ada, MI 49301. Sustar Financial Group is not affiliated with USA Financial Securities.

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